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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (AN3PG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.32 - $81.28$63.51
Multi-Stage$85.87 - $94.21$89.96
Blended Fair Value$76.74
Current Price$101.63
Upside-24.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.27%3.22%1.611.351.160.870.881.371.401.351.401.16
YoY Growth--19.91%15.75%33.52%-0.94%-36.01%-2.02%4.04%-3.90%21.29%-1.67%
Dividend Yield--1.59%1.32%1.10%0.81%0.84%1.27%1.32%1.27%1.39%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,094.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,140.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,818.801,761.751,057.05
Cash Retained (M)5,140.005,140.005,140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,818.80-1,761.75-1,057.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,321.203,378.254,082.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,252.373,252.373,252.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.711.041.26
LTM Dividend per Share2.752.752.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.711.041.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.794.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$49.32$63.51$81.28
Upside / Downside-51.47%-37.51%-20.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,094.0014,242.7714,393.1214,545.0514,698.5814,853.7415,299.35
Payout Ratio63.53%68.82%74.12%79.41%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,954.009,802.5110,667.9411,550.5512,450.6013,368.3714,151.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)9,063.069,153.649,244.22
Year 2 PV (M)9,119.179,302.379,487.38
Year 3 PV (M)9,128.829,405.289,687.27
Year 4 PV (M)9,097.889,467.089,847.40
Year 5 PV (M)9,031.629,492.069,971.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)233,839.58245,760.99258,163.73
Equity Value (M)279,280.12292,581.41306,401.09
Shares Outstanding (M)3,252.373,252.373,252.37
Fair Value$85.87$89.96$94.21
Upside / Downside-15.51%-11.48%-7.30%

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