DDM Analysis: ABDN.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.96 - $1.24	$1.11
Multi-Stage	$2.21 - $2.44	$2.33
Blended Fair Value	$1.72
Current Price	$1.87
Upside	-8.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.88%	-3.87%	0.14	0.15	0.17	0.17	0.26	0.28	0.87	0.25	0.20	1.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.81%	-9.12%	-0.32%	-35.70%	-7.53%	-67.97%	244.78%	26.76%	-82.31%	441.97%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.95%	8.61%	8.77%	6.90%	9.20%	8.52%	33.96%	5.79%	5.37%	28.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	636.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	527.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	109.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	127.20	79.50	47.70
Cash Retained (M)	109.00	109.00	109.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-127.20	-79.50	-47.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-18.20	29.50	61.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,852.62	1,852.62	1,852.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	-14.88%	-13.88%	-12.88%
Fair Value	$0.96	$1.11	$1.24
Upside / Downside	-48.42%	-40.46%	-33.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	636.00	547.74	471.72	406.26	349.88	301.32	310.36
Payout Ratio	82.86%	84.29%	85.72%	87.14%	88.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	527.00	461.68	404.35	354.03	309.90	271.19	287.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	-14.88%	-13.88%	-12.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	417.27	422.17	427.08
Year 2 PV (M)	330.30	338.10	346.00
Year 3 PV (M)	261.38	270.70	280.24
Year 4 PV (M)	206.78	216.67	226.91
Year 5 PV (M)	163.55	173.38	183.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,722.86	2,886.60	3,058.13
Equity Value (M)	4,102.14	4,307.63	4,522.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,852.62	1,852.62	1,852.62
Fair Value	$2.21	$2.33	$2.44
Upside / Downside	18.41%	24.34%	30.53%

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Abrdn Plc (ABDN.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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