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The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. (9304.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,414.90 - $19,069.49$10,728.51
Multi-Stage$2,713.38 - $2,971.75$2,840.17
Blended Fair Value$6,784.34
Current Price$1,158.00
Upside485.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.55%12.37%29.7323.8121.1614.8213.5012.7012.0313.9010.5910.59
YoY Growth--24.87%12.51%42.77%9.81%6.31%5.50%-13.41%31.25%0.00%14.29%
Dividend Yield--2.95%2.86%3.03%2.79%2.55%2.45%2.82%3.22%2.33%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,548.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,034.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,109.60693.50416.10
Cash Retained (M)3,514.003,514.003,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,109.60-693.50-416.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,404.402,820.503,097.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
LTM Dividend per Share35.4235.4235.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend77.3084.5489.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Fair Value$4,414.90$10,728.51$19,069.49
Upside / Downside281.25%826.47%1,546.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,548.005,863.346,196.606,548.816,921.037,314.417,533.85
Payout Ratio36.66%47.33%58.00%68.66%79.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,034.002,775.093,593.854,496.725,490.626,582.976,968.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Year 1 PV (M)2,580.662,605.312,629.96
Year 2 PV (M)3,107.903,167.563,227.79
Year 3 PV (M)3,616.243,720.863,827.49
Year 4 PV (M)4,106.164,265.324,429.06
Year 5 PV (M)4,578.154,801.035,032.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,814.98144,524.39151,492.60
Equity Value (M)155,804.08163,084.47170,639.40
Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
Fair Value$2,713.38$2,840.17$2,971.75
Upside / Downside134.32%145.27%156.63%

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