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Definitive Analysis

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Aichi Tokei Denki Co., Ltd. (7723.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42,256.75 - $49,798.40$46,662.46
Multi-Stage$32,630.98 - $35,865.86$34,217.77
Blended Fair Value$40,440.11
Current Price$2,798.00
Upside1,345.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.12%7.90%67.7264.6046.7943.3539.9739.9743.1536.6633.3433.34
YoY Growth--4.83%38.06%7.95%8.46%0.00%-7.38%17.73%9.94%0.00%5.34%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.81%3.10%3.20%2.79%2.67%3.08%2.61%2.64%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,905.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,652.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)781.00488.13292.88
Cash Retained (M)3,652.003,652.003,652.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-781.00-488.13-292.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,871.003,163.883,359.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
LTM Dividend per Share16.4416.4416.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend203.03222.07234.76
WACC / Discount Rate-1.46%-1.46%-1.46%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$42,256.75$46,662.46$49,798.40
Upside / Downside1,410.25%1,567.71%1,679.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,905.004,102.744,310.504,528.774,758.104,999.045,149.01
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00951.141,719.342,562.903,487.484,499.134,762.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.46%-1.46%-1.46%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)956.02965.20974.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,737.011,770.551,804.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,602.502,678.252,755.45
Year 4 PV (M)3,559.513,698.323,841.15
Year 5 PV (M)4,615.594,841.665,076.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)488,611.30512,543.38537,404.16
Equity Value (M)502,081.92526,497.36551,856.06
Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
Fair Value$32,630.98$34,217.77$35,865.86
Upside / Downside1,066.23%1,122.94%1,181.84%

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