Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

OPT Machine Vision Tech Co., Ltd. (688686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.24 - $18.14$15.06
Multi-Stage$22.40 - $24.64$23.50
Blended Fair Value$19.28
Current Price$146.53
Upside-86.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-7.67%0.00%0.660.850.780.680.410.990.000.020.000.00
YoY Growth---22.24%9.39%14.83%64.91%-58.34%22,921.65%-82.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.93%0.56%0.54%0.26%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3923.3714.02
Cash Retained (M)140.20140.20140.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.39-23.37-14.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.81116.83126.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.03122.03122.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.961.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.961.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.341.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.24$15.06$18.14
Upside / Downside-91.65%-89.72%-87.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.97185.10183.25181.41179.60177.80183.14
Payout Ratio25.01%38.01%51.01%64.01%77.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.7770.3693.47116.12138.30160.02169.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.6065.2665.92
Year 2 PV (M)78.8080.4282.05
Year 3 PV (M)89.8892.6695.49
Year 4 PV (M)98.29102.36106.56
Year 5 PV (M)104.42109.86115.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,297.002,416.602,541.15
Equity Value (M)2,732.982,867.163,006.69
Shares Outstanding (M)122.03122.03122.03
Fair Value$22.40$23.50$24.64
Upside / Downside-84.72%-83.97%-83.19%

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