Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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iRay Technology Company Limited (688301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.95 - $579.46$543.04
Multi-Stage$77.07 - $84.33$80.64
Blended Fair Value$311.84
Current Price$115.76
Upside169.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS270.15%0.00%1.381.170.860.390.020.000.000.000.000.16
YoY Growth--17.51%35.80%122.03%2,404.59%683.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.02%0.65%0.29%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)545.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.1268.2040.92
Cash Retained (M)360.35360.35360.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.12-68.20-40.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)251.23292.15319.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.25187.25187.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.341.561.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.341.561.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.552.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.95$543.04$579.46
Upside / Downside57.18%369.11%400.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)545.59581.05618.82659.04701.88747.50769.93
Payout Ratio33.95%45.16%56.37%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.24262.41348.84445.39553.01672.75712.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)243.28245.59247.89
Year 2 PV (M)299.82305.53311.30
Year 3 PV (M)354.90365.09375.47
Year 4 PV (M)408.53424.24440.40
Year 5 PV (M)460.75483.00506.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,663.7113,275.3713,910.44
Equity Value (M)14,430.9915,098.8215,791.61
Shares Outstanding (M)187.25187.25187.25
Fair Value$77.07$80.64$84.33
Upside / Downside-33.42%-30.34%-27.15%

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