Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Southern Power Grid Technology Co.,Ltd (688248.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.64 - $27.41$18.09
Multi-Stage$9.19 - $10.04$9.61
Blended Fair Value$13.85
Current Price$60.60
Upside-77.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS179.42%0.00%0.310.120.080.100.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--148.00%47.06%-18.04%0.00%-100.00%7.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.43%0.18%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)372.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.4246.5127.91
Cash Retained (M)295.86295.86295.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.42-46.51-27.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.44249.34267.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.02567.02567.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.64$18.09$27.41
Upside / Downside-79.14%-70.15%-54.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)372.09396.28422.03449.47478.68509.80525.09
Payout Ratio20.49%34.39%48.29%62.20%76.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.23136.28203.81279.55364.27458.82485.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.86124.03125.19
Year 2 PV (M)165.65168.81171.99
Year 3 PV (M)204.83210.71216.71
Year 4 PV (M)240.63249.88259.40
Year 5 PV (M)273.25286.44300.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,204.194,407.264,618.09
Equity Value (M)5,211.425,447.135,691.53
Shares Outstanding (M)567.02567.02567.02
Fair Value$9.19$9.61$10.04
Upside / Downside-84.83%-84.15%-83.44%

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