Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Donglai Coating Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688129.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.01 - $22.73$16.35
Multi-Stage$19.02 - $20.89$19.94
Blended Fair Value$18.15
Current Price$23.39
Upside-22.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS11.15%0.00%0.410.100.280.210.000.240.110.560.000.00
YoY Growth--327.36%-66.50%33.28%0.00%-100.00%111.39%-79.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.07%0.69%1.98%1.28%0.00%0.71%0.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6811.056.63
Cash Retained (M)51.9951.9951.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.68-11.05-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.3140.9445.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.24112.24112.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate1.18%2.18%3.18%
Fair Value$12.01$16.35$22.73
Upside / Downside-48.64%-30.09%-2.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.4090.3292.2994.3096.3698.46101.41
Payout Ratio41.19%50.95%60.71%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.4146.0256.0366.4677.3288.6193.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate1.18%2.18%3.18%
Year 1 PV (M)42.8043.2243.64
Year 2 PV (M)48.4549.4250.39
Year 3 PV (M)53.4455.0456.67
Year 4 PV (M)57.8160.1362.52
Year 5 PV (M)61.6164.7267.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,871.021,965.322,063.39
Equity Value (M)2,135.132,237.852,344.57
Shares Outstanding (M)112.24112.24112.24
Fair Value$19.02$19.94$20.89
Upside / Downside-18.67%-14.75%-10.69%

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