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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Trim Co., Ltd. (6788.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,107.20 - $22,384.62$11,422.08
Multi-Stage$5,126.14 - $5,610.49$5,363.86
Blended Fair Value$8,392.97
Current Price$4,345.00
Upside93.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.76%4.91%89.74126.6859.9960.8071.9961.7663.5065.1765.7955.28
YoY Growth---29.16%111.16%-1.32%-15.55%16.56%-2.74%-2.57%-0.94%19.01%-0.55%
Dividend Yield--2.07%3.66%1.73%2.41%1.87%2.01%1.20%1.36%1.44%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,074.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,731.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)414.90259.31155.59
Cash Retained (M)1,731.091,731.091,731.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-414.90-259.31-155.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,316.191,471.781,575.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.667.667.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share171.76192.06205.60
LTM Dividend per Share44.8144.8144.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share171.76192.06205.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend216.57236.88250.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$7,107.20$11,422.08$22,384.62
Upside / Downside63.57%162.88%415.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,074.492,196.162,324.962,461.322,605.682,758.502,841.26
Payout Ratio16.55%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.40686.141,067.901,492.091,962.352,482.652,628.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)628.96634.96640.96
Year 2 PV (M)897.33914.53931.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,149.281,182.481,216.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,385.551,439.161,494.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,606.841,684.931,766.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,613.5035,247.0636,943.52
Equity Value (M)39,281.4641,103.1142,993.01
Shares Outstanding (M)7.667.667.66
Fair Value$5,126.14$5,363.86$5,610.49
Upside / Downside17.98%23.45%29.13%

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