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Definitive Analysis

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Hosokawa Micron Corporation (6277.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24,790.41 - $60,714.23$56,898.13
Multi-Stage$8,875.34 - $9,712.13$9,286.06
Blended Fair Value$33,092.09
Current Price$5,820.00
Upside468.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.74%11.95%130.15101.6382.3481.9460.0260.0263.1255.1649.3642.28
YoY Growth--28.07%23.42%0.49%36.52%0.00%-4.91%14.43%11.75%16.75%0.48%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.41%2.09%3.05%1.76%1.89%2.69%2.63%1.22%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,527.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,930.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,597.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)905.40565.88339.53
Cash Retained (M)2,597.002,597.002,597.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-905.40-565.88-339.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,691.602,031.132,257.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.8314.8314.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share114.08136.97152.24
LTM Dividend per Share130.15130.15130.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share114.08136.97152.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend244.23267.13282.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24,790.41$56,898.13$60,714.23
Upside / Downside325.95%877.63%943.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,527.004,821.265,134.645,468.395,823.836,202.386,388.45
Payout Ratio42.63%52.11%61.58%71.05%80.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,930.002,512.193,161.903,885.474,689.745,582.145,909.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,335.852,357.992,380.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,733.592,785.662,838.22
Year 3 PV (M)3,123.363,213.023,304.38
Year 4 PV (M)3,505.253,640.053,778.71
Year 5 PV (M)3,879.404,066.784,261.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,031.40121,635.76127,454.61
Equity Value (M)131,608.85137,699.26144,017.37
Shares Outstanding (M)14.8314.8314.83
Fair Value$8,875.34$9,286.06$9,712.13
Upside / Downside52.50%59.55%66.88%

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