Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Al-Jouf Agricultural Development Co. (6070.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.24 - $238.43$116.36
Multi-Stage$74.48 - $81.68$78.01
Blended Fair Value$97.19
Current Price$44.18
Upside119.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.16%3.81%1.210.490.500.091.001.501.001.121.001.00
YoY Growth--146.13%-1.68%446.97%-90.84%-33.33%49.90%-10.39%11.66%0.00%19.88%
Dividend Yield--2.51%0.89%0.97%0.17%1.22%7.73%4.35%3.73%3.21%4.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.989.995.99
Cash Retained (M)50.4950.4950.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.98-9.99-5.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.5140.5044.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.351.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.351.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.132.332.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$71.24$116.36$238.43
Upside / Downside61.24%163.38%439.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.8983.2786.7890.4594.2698.24101.19
Payout Ratio36.81%47.45%58.08%68.72%79.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.4139.5150.4162.1674.8188.4293.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8137.1637.52
Year 2 PV (M)43.7544.6045.46
Year 3 PV (M)50.2651.7353.24
Year 4 PV (M)56.3558.5760.85
Year 5 PV (M)62.0565.1268.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,985.192,083.232,185.11
Equity Value (M)2,234.412,340.422,450.48
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$74.48$78.01$81.68
Upside / Downside68.58%76.58%84.89%

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