Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd. (605598.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.56$2.17
Multi-Stage$2.55 - $2.80$2.67
Blended Fair Value$2.42
Current Price$25.10
Upside-90.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS40.65%0.00%0.220.070.030.020.000.040.040.010.000.00
YoY Growth--217.44%116.66%76.48%0.00%-100.00%1.99%323.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%0.36%0.16%0.17%0.00%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.577.864.71
Cash Retained (M)62.4962.4962.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.57-7.86-4.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9254.6357.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)239.44239.44239.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Fair Value$1.80$2.17$2.56
Upside / Downside-92.84%-91.34%-89.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.8562.5062.1661.8261.4961.1562.98
Payout Ratio0.58%18.46%36.35%54.23%72.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.3611.5422.5933.5344.3455.0358.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Year 1 PV (M)10.3910.4910.60
Year 2 PV (M)18.3118.6919.06
Year 3 PV (M)24.4625.2125.98
Year 4 PV (M)29.1230.3331.56
Year 5 PV (M)32.5434.2335.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)494.78520.42547.12
Equity Value (M)609.61639.37670.31
Shares Outstanding (M)239.44239.44239.44
Fair Value$2.55$2.67$2.80
Upside / Downside-89.86%-89.36%-88.85%

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