Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai New Centurion Network Information Technology Co., Ltd. (605398.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.33$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.39$0.37
Blended Fair Value$0.33
Current Price$30.89
Upside-98.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.16%0.00%0.080.070.090.140.130.140.220.180.000.00
YoY Growth--12.19%-22.06%-35.74%12.40%-7.31%-37.95%22.85%5,498.10%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.40%0.50%1.03%0.74%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.340.840.50
Cash Retained (M)6.686.686.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.34-0.84-0.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.345.846.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)174.40174.40174.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.78%-1.78%-0.78%
Fair Value$0.24$0.28$0.33
Upside / Downside-99.24%-99.09%-98.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.696.576.466.346.236.126.30
Payout Ratio0.19%18.15%36.12%54.08%72.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.011.192.333.434.495.515.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.78%-1.78%-0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1.071.091.10
Year 2 PV (M)1.891.931.97
Year 3 PV (M)2.502.582.66
Year 4 PV (M)2.953.083.20
Year 5 PV (M)3.263.433.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)49.9852.6055.33
Equity Value (M)61.6664.7167.88
Shares Outstanding (M)174.40174.40174.40
Fair Value$0.35$0.37$0.39
Upside / Downside-98.86%-98.80%-98.74%

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