Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (605339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $2.29$1.90
Multi-Stage$3.08 - $3.37$3.22
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$17.05
Upside-84.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.31%0.00%0.130.330.360.300.510.160.620.350.130.06
YoY Growth---60.55%-8.97%18.26%-40.60%218.06%-74.33%77.24%170.26%121.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%1.89%1.37%1.32%2.08%0.66%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.999.995.99
Cash Retained (M)4.444.444.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.99-9.99-5.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.55-5.55-1.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.54$1.90$2.29
Upside / Downside-90.96%-88.86%-86.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.9379.1378.3477.5676.7876.0178.29
Payout Ratio94.45%93.56%92.67%91.78%90.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.4974.0372.5971.1869.7868.4172.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)68.0568.7469.43
Year 2 PV (M)61.3362.5963.86
Year 3 PV (M)55.2756.9858.72
Year 4 PV (M)49.8151.8754.00
Year 5 PV (M)44.8847.2249.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,011.211,063.861,118.69
Equity Value (M)1,290.541,351.261,414.35
Shares Outstanding (M)419.11419.11419.11
Fair Value$3.08$3.22$3.37
Upside / Downside-81.94%-81.09%-80.21%

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