Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (605116.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.32 - $12.26$10.21
Multi-Stage$14.93 - $16.42$15.66
Blended Fair Value$12.93
Current Price$22.43
Upside-42.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.170.130.120.090.000.090.150.190.00
YoY Growth--41.51%28.02%8.76%33.67%0.00%-100.00%-38.34%-23.09%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.75%0.49%0.51%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9153.0731.84
Cash Retained (M)299.35299.35299.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.91-53.07-31.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.45246.29267.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.32$10.21$12.26
Upside / Downside-62.92%-54.49%-45.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.54420.29416.09411.93407.81403.73415.84
Payout Ratio29.49%41.59%53.69%65.79%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.18174.80223.41271.03317.67363.36384.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)160.18161.81163.45
Year 2 PV (M)187.60191.45195.33
Year 3 PV (M)208.55215.00221.58
Year 4 PV (M)224.00233.28242.85
Year 5 PV (M)234.78247.00259.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,945.635,203.165,471.31
Equity Value (M)5,960.736,251.706,554.25
Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
Fair Value$14.93$15.66$16.42
Upside / Downside-33.43%-30.18%-26.80%

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