DDM Analysis: 605011.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.70 - $5.48	$4.55
Multi-Stage	$6.89 - $7.57	$7.22
Blended Fair Value	$5.89
Current Price	$21.56
Upside	-72.70%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-7.44%	0.00%	0.20	0.23	0.30	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.22	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-10.45%	-24.11%	-5.52%	0.00%	5.78%	-0.89%	1.49%	33.28%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.78%	0.97%	1.97%	1.64%	3.54%	3.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	188.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	78.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	109.18

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.61	23.51	14.10
Cash Retained (M)	109.18	109.18	109.18
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.61	-23.51	-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	71.56	85.67	95.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	404.76	404.76	404.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	7.84%	7.84%	7.84%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.70	$4.55	$5.48
Upside / Downside	-82.83%	-78.88%	-74.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	188.06	186.18	184.32	182.48	180.65	178.85	184.21
Payout Ratio	41.95%	51.56%	61.17%	70.78%	80.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	78.89	95.99	112.75	129.15	145.23	160.96	170.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.84%	7.84%	7.84%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	88.12	89.01	89.91
Year 2 PV (M)	95.00	96.95	98.92
Year 3 PV (M)	99.90	102.99	106.14
Year 4 PV (M)	103.12	107.39	111.80
Year 5 PV (M)	104.91	110.38	116.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,295.91	2,415.47	2,539.95
Equity Value (M)	2,786.96	2,922.19	3,062.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	404.76	404.76	404.76
Fair Value	$6.89	$7.22	$7.57
Upside / Downside	-68.06%	-66.51%	-64.90%

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Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. (605011.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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