Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Jianye Chemical Co., Ltd. (603948.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.42 - $269.73$252.78
Multi-Stage$42.38 - $46.34$44.32
Blended Fair Value$148.55
Current Price$25.36
Upside485.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS114.22%0.00%1.011.940.550.200.250.020.370.080.100.15
YoY Growth---47.92%254.52%175.00%-20.59%1,018.81%-93.96%341.65%-16.44%-31.99%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.59%9.01%2.44%0.69%1.39%0.09%1.81%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)218.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.6927.3116.39
Cash Retained (M)53.9353.9353.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.69-27.31-16.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.2426.6237.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.92160.92160.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$119.42$252.78$269.73
Upside / Downside370.89%896.76%963.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)218.47232.45247.32263.14279.98297.89306.83
Payout Ratio75.31%78.25%81.19%84.13%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.54181.89200.80221.37243.76268.11283.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)169.42171.02172.63
Year 2 PV (M)174.19177.51180.86
Year 3 PV (M)178.86184.00189.24
Year 4 PV (M)183.44190.50197.77
Year 5 PV (M)187.92197.01206.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,926.216,212.726,510.22
Equity Value (M)6,820.037,132.777,457.16
Shares Outstanding (M)160.92160.92160.92
Fair Value$42.38$44.32$46.34
Upside / Downside67.11%74.78%82.73%

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