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Definitive Analysis

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Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (603611.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.81 - $383.90$359.77
Multi-Stage$51.33 - $56.13$53.68
Blended Fair Value$206.73
Current Price$24.55
Upside742.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.35%20.25%0.780.690.700.410.090.580.390.420.160.17
YoY Growth--14.28%-1.30%68.11%338.03%-83.62%47.28%-7.21%155.74%-2.97%37.02%
Dividend Yield--4.31%3.41%3.36%2.62%0.74%3.58%2.20%2.81%0.69%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)495.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.0861.9237.15
Cash Retained (M)234.58234.58234.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.08-61.92-37.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.51172.66197.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)256.63256.63256.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.670.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.670.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.691.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.81$359.77$383.90
Upside / Downside379.88%1,365.46%1,463.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)495.38527.58561.88598.40637.29678.72699.08
Payout Ratio52.65%60.12%67.59%75.06%82.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.80317.17379.76449.15525.95610.85646.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)293.96296.74299.53
Year 2 PV (M)326.21332.42338.69
Year 3 PV (M)357.58367.84378.30
Year 4 PV (M)388.08403.01418.36
Year 5 PV (M)417.74437.91458.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,388.9311,939.0212,510.16
Equity Value (M)13,172.4913,776.9514,403.91
Shares Outstanding (M)256.63256.63256.63
Fair Value$51.33$53.68$56.13
Upside / Downside109.08%118.67%128.63%

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