Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Proya Cosmetics Co.,Ltd. (603605.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$365.01 - $797.36$747.24
Multi-Stage$119.56 - $130.90$125.12
Blended Fair Value$436.18
Current Price$80.79
Upside439.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.77%38.44%0.941.010.440.370.300.220.160.050.100.92
YoY Growth---6.72%129.92%19.38%21.94%37.20%39.60%200.39%-49.28%-88.83%2,439.68%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.05%0.34%0.38%0.37%0.37%0.44%0.33%0.92%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,578.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)476.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,101.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)315.70197.31118.39
Cash Retained (M)1,101.811,101.811,101.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-315.70-197.31-118.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)786.11904.50983.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.70393.70393.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.002.302.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.002.302.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$365.01$747.24$797.36
Upside / Downside351.81%824.92%886.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,578.491,681.091,790.361,906.732,030.672,162.662,227.54
Payout Ratio30.20%42.16%54.12%66.08%78.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)476.68708.72968.921,259.961,584.731,946.402,060.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)659.67665.92672.18
Year 2 PV (M)839.44855.43871.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,016.031,045.201,074.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,189.481,235.231,282.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,359.831,425.511,493.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,004.9944,033.8546,140.36
Equity Value (M)47,069.4549,261.1451,535.01
Shares Outstanding (M)393.70393.70393.70
Fair Value$119.56$125.12$130.90
Upside / Downside47.98%54.87%62.02%

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