Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (603379.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.31 - $120.60$79.30
Multi-Stage$76.11 - $83.59$79.78
Blended Fair Value$79.54
Current Price$58.82
Upside35.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.53%-4.49%0.230.240.170.110.320.100.650.270.760.32
YoY Growth---3.85%40.31%54.45%-65.67%213.52%-84.34%145.93%-64.93%135.17%-11.29%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.55%0.51%0.53%1.87%0.48%1.96%0.80%2.27%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,808.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)415.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,392.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)361.72226.08135.65
Cash Retained (M)1,392.681,392.681,392.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-361.72-226.08-135.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,030.951,166.601,257.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)612.78612.78612.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.00%3.00%4.00%
Fair Value$55.31$79.30$120.60
Upside / Downside-5.97%34.82%105.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,808.621,862.881,918.781,976.352,035.652,096.722,159.62
Payout Ratio23.00%36.40%49.80%63.20%76.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)415.94678.06955.521,249.031,559.291,887.051,997.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.00%3.00%4.00%
Year 1 PV (M)631.35637.54643.73
Year 2 PV (M)828.43844.75861.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,008.301,038.251,068.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,172.071,218.711,266.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,320.731,386.751,455.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,675.6943,759.0645,924.92
Equity Value (M)46,636.5648,885.0651,220.79
Shares Outstanding (M)612.78612.78612.78
Fair Value$76.11$79.78$83.59
Upside / Downside29.39%35.63%42.11%

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