Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Winka Times Department Store Co.,Ltd. (603101.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.43 - $37.53$35.17
Multi-Stage$6.19 - $6.78$6.48
Blended Fair Value$20.83
Current Price$10.77
Upside93.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.31%8.41%0.330.090.090.090.090.090.120.060.060.14
YoY Growth--280.09%-5.98%-0.30%0.15%5.31%-23.53%81.45%11.11%-58.31%-7.13%
Dividend Yield--4.92%1.41%1.78%1.58%1.83%1.74%1.61%0.95%0.52%2.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.7111.076.64
Cash Retained (M)36.3936.3936.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.71-11.07-6.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.6925.3329.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)469.12469.12469.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.43$35.17$37.53
Upside / Downside117.52%226.59%248.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.5394.29100.42106.94113.90121.30124.94
Payout Ratio58.89%65.11%71.34%77.56%83.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.1461.3971.6382.9495.42109.17115.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)57.2857.8258.36
Year 2 PV (M)62.3563.5464.74
Year 3 PV (M)67.3569.2971.26
Year 4 PV (M)72.2975.0777.93
Year 5 PV (M)77.1680.8984.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,568.752,692.822,821.64
Equity Value (M)2,905.193,039.433,178.69
Shares Outstanding (M)469.12469.12469.12
Fair Value$6.19$6.48$6.78
Upside / Downside-42.50%-39.84%-37.09%

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