Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (600839.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.11 - $10.46$7.16
Multi-Stage$7.40 - $8.13$7.76
Blended Fair Value$7.46
Current Price$10.47
Upside-28.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.25%3.73%0.220.230.180.010.250.320.300.210.110.09
YoY Growth---3.47%23.84%1,733.96%-95.92%-23.24%8.18%39.34%85.39%27.53%-41.05%
Dividend Yield--2.13%4.03%3.89%0.34%9.46%11.78%8.02%6.77%2.69%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,366.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)872.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273.36170.85102.51
Cash Retained (M)872.34872.34872.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-273.36-170.85-102.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)598.98701.49769.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Fair Value$5.11$7.16$10.46
Upside / Downside-51.20%-31.59%-0.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,366.791,404.101,442.431,481.811,522.271,563.821,610.74
Payout Ratio36.18%46.94%57.71%68.47%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.45659.10832.371,014.601,206.171,407.441,489.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Year 1 PV (M)613.17619.19625.22
Year 2 PV (M)720.40734.63749.00
Year 3 PV (M)816.92841.25866.06
Year 4 PV (M)903.49939.54976.66
Year 5 PV (M)980.781,029.951,081.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,142.7831,653.7033,224.61
Equity Value (M)34,177.5435,818.2637,522.61
Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
Fair Value$7.40$7.76$8.13
Upside / Downside-29.31%-25.92%-22.39%

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