Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal Co., Ltd. Class A (600301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.49 - $88.88$43.29
Multi-Stage$16.80 - $18.38$17.58
Blended Fair Value$30.43
Current Price$33.84
Upside-10.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%47.67%0.190.110.170.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--82.77%-35.87%1,478.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.75%0.99%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)611.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)559.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.3276.4545.87
Cash Retained (M)559.92559.92559.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.32-76.45-45.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)437.60483.47514.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)632.27632.27632.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.850.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.49$43.29$88.88
Upside / Downside-21.73%27.93%162.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)611.58651.33693.67738.75786.77837.91863.05
Payout Ratio8.45%24.76%41.07%57.38%73.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.66161.25284.88423.89579.77754.12798.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)147.11148.51149.90
Year 2 PV (M)237.11241.62246.18
Year 3 PV (M)321.87331.11340.53
Year 4 PV (M)401.64417.08432.97
Year 5 PV (M)476.61499.63523.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,038.619,475.189,928.46
Equity Value (M)10,622.9511,113.1411,621.57
Shares Outstanding (M)632.27632.27632.27
Fair Value$16.80$17.58$18.38
Upside / Downside-50.35%-48.06%-45.68%

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