Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Langfang Development Co., Ltd. (600149.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.90 - $2.09$1.32
Multi-Stage$0.63 - $0.69$0.66
Blended Fair Value$0.99
Current Price$5.28
Upside-81.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.74%0.00%0.010.010.010.000.010.000.020.000.020.01
YoY Growth---20.81%13.16%158.92%-24.67%227.25%-87.44%29,127.92%-99.78%81.40%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.32%0.21%0.08%0.13%0.04%0.21%0.00%0.14%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.222.011.21
Cash Retained (M)13.7313.7313.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.22-2.01-1.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.5111.7212.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.97373.97373.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.90$1.32$2.09
Upside / Downside-82.99%-75.05%-60.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.1017.1418.2619.4420.7122.0522.71
Payout Ratio14.71%29.77%44.83%59.89%74.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.375.108.1811.6415.5219.8521.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.614.664.70
Year 2 PV (M)6.696.826.95
Year 3 PV (M)8.618.869.11
Year 4 PV (M)10.3810.7811.19
Year 5 PV (M)12.0012.5813.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)194.14203.52213.26
Equity Value (M)236.44247.22258.39
Shares Outstanding (M)373.97373.97373.97
Fair Value$0.63$0.66$0.69
Upside / Downside-88.03%-87.48%-86.91%

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