Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.,Ltd (600111.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.63 - $58.61$27.52
Multi-Stage$10.49 - $11.48$10.98
Blended Fair Value$19.25
Current Price$48.30
Upside-60.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.71%0.43%0.140.170.440.070.090.050.040.060.030.08
YoY Growth---17.76%-61.80%535.71%-26.26%88.91%42.86%-40.55%96.24%-64.00%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.85%1.71%0.18%0.50%0.56%0.31%0.45%0.25%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,140.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)276.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,864.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)428.06267.54160.52
Cash Retained (M)1,864.221,864.221,864.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-428.06-267.54-160.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,436.171,596.691,703.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,615.073,615.073,615.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.63$27.52$58.61
Upside / Downside-65.57%-43.01%21.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,140.292,279.412,427.572,585.362,753.412,932.383,020.35
Payout Ratio12.90%28.32%43.74%59.16%74.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)276.06645.501,061.801,529.482,053.482,639.142,793.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)589.32594.91600.49
Year 2 PV (M)885.02901.87918.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,163.891,197.301,231.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,426.631,481.501,537.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,673.941,754.791,838.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,193.1133,748.0535,362.50
Equity Value (M)37,931.9039,678.4141,489.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3,615.073,615.073,615.07
Fair Value$10.49$10.98$11.48
Upside / Downside-78.28%-77.28%-76.24%

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