DDM Analysis: 600019.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.47 - $9.38	$7.16
Multi-Stage	$10.30 - $11.33	$10.80
Blended Fair Value	$8.98
Current Price	$7.07
Upside	27.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-9.84%	9.50%	0.37	0.27	0.51	0.78	0.34	0.62	0.62	0.38	0.24	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	34.29%	-46.58%	-33.75%	131.27%	-45.78%	0.24%	64.54%	56.26%	17.39%	37.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.12%	4.14%	8.24%	11.49%	4.15%	12.70%	8.19%	4.40%	3.69%	3.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,439.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,758.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,680.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,887.85	1,179.90	707.94
Cash Retained (M)	6,680.48	6,680.48	6,680.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,887.85	-1,179.90	-707.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,792.63	5,500.57	5,972.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	21,574.73	21,574.73	21,574.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-0.05%	0.95%	1.95%
Fair Value	$5.47	$7.16	$9.38
Upside / Downside	-22.64%	1.29%	32.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,439.23	9,529.12	9,619.86	9,711.46	9,803.94	9,897.30	10,194.22
Payout Ratio	29.23%	41.38%	53.54%	65.69%	77.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,758.76	3,943.26	5,150.08	6,379.52	7,631.91	8,907.57	9,429.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-0.05%	0.95%	1.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,671.12	3,707.85	3,744.58
Year 2 PV (M)	4,463.76	4,553.52	4,644.18
Year 3 PV (M)	5,147.76	5,303.81	5,462.99
Year 4 PV (M)	5,733.33	5,966.23	6,206.17
Year 5 PV (M)	6,229.83	6,547.77	6,878.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	196,926.96	206,977.10	217,433.46
Equity Value (M)	222,172.75	233,056.30	244,369.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	21,574.73	21,574.73	21,574.73
Fair Value	$10.30	$10.80	$11.33
Upside / Downside	45.66%	52.79%	60.21%

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Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600019.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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