Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Financiero Inbursa, S.A.B. de C.V. (4FY.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$207.17 - $749.08$656.74
Multi-Stage$92.46 - $101.29$96.79
Blended Fair Value$376.76
Current Price$48.09
Upside683.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.001.070.340.170.310.30
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%211.98%98.01%-45.01%4.57%10.54%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.87%1.27%0.59%1.03%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35,048.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)274.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,773.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,009.764,381.102,628.66
Cash Retained (M)34,773.8934,773.8934,773.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,009.76-4,381.10-2,628.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,764.1330,392.7932,145.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,305.179,305.179,305.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.983.273.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.983.273.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.013.303.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$207.17$656.74$749.08
Upside / Downside330.80%1,265.64%1,457.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35,048.8037,326.9739,753.2342,337.1945,089.1048,019.9049,460.49
Payout Ratio0.78%18.63%36.47%54.31%72.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)274.916,953.0814,498.2522,994.9132,534.8943,217.9145,750.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,435.126,496.116,557.11
Year 2 PV (M)12,418.6412,655.1812,893.95
Year 3 PV (M)18,229.2818,752.5719,285.79
Year 4 PV (M)23,870.7624,788.7625,732.99
Year 5 PV (M)29,346.7430,764.2032,235.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)770,035.49807,228.50845,844.96
Equity Value (M)860,336.02900,685.32942,550.71
Shares Outstanding (M)9,305.179,305.179,305.17
Fair Value$92.46$96.79$101.29
Upside / Downside92.26%101.28%110.63%

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