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Definitive Analysis

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Asahi Kasei Corporation (3407.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,731.37 - $20,369.58$11,543.60
Multi-Stage$3,027.91 - $3,317.13$3,169.84
Blended Fair Value$7,356.72
Current Price$1,164.50
Upside531.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.50%6.53%36.6236.6235.6034.5933.5735.7137.8828.6620.4820.48
YoY Growth--0.00%2.86%2.94%3.03%-6.00%-5.71%32.14%39.99%-0.01%5.24%
Dividend Yield--3.57%3.57%3.66%3.34%2.75%4.08%3.17%2.04%1.70%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141,013.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,174.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)88,839.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28,202.6017,626.6310,575.98
Cash Retained (M)88,839.0088,839.0088,839.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-28,202.60-17,626.63-10,575.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)60,636.4071,212.3878,263.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,364.301,364.301,364.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.4452.2057.36
LTM Dividend per Share38.2438.2438.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.4452.2057.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend82.6990.4495.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.53%5.53%6.53%
Fair Value$4,731.37$11,543.60$20,369.58
Upside / Downside306.30%891.29%1,649.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141,013.00148,807.74157,033.34165,713.63174,873.73184,540.18190,076.39
Payout Ratio37.00%47.60%58.20%68.80%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,174.0070,831.8091,392.86114,010.60138,849.54166,086.16175,820.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.53%5.53%6.53%
Year 1 PV (M)65,968.6566,599.7667,230.87
Year 2 PV (M)79,274.0380,798.0982,336.66
Year 3 PV (M)92,102.8794,771.6497,491.47
Year 4 PV (M)104,467.62108,523.06112,695.44
Year 5 PV (M)116,380.45122,054.96127,948.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,672,798.133,851,877.404,037,874.81
Equity Value (M)4,130,991.754,324,624.914,525,577.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,364.301,364.301,364.30
Fair Value$3,027.91$3,169.84$3,317.13
Upside / Downside160.02%172.21%184.85%

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