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Definitive Analysis

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Toray Industries, Inc. (3402.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$521.07 - $931.45$693.61
Multi-Stage$935.56 - $1,027.86$980.82
Blended Fair Value$837.22
Current Price$945.30
Upside-11.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.40%5.96%18.5218.5217.4912.8612.8616.4516.4514.3914.3912.33
YoY Growth--0.01%5.89%35.98%0.01%-21.84%0.04%14.29%0.02%16.65%18.78%
Dividend Yield--1.87%2.43%2.18%1.69%1.74%3.24%2.01%1.65%1.53%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59,322.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,334.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30,988.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,864.407,415.254,449.15
Cash Retained (M)30,988.0030,988.0030,988.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,864.40-7,415.25-4,449.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,123.6023,572.7526,538.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,556.741,556.741,556.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.2815.1417.05
LTM Dividend per Share18.2018.2018.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.2815.1417.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.4933.3435.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.46%1.46%2.46%
Fair Value$521.07$693.61$931.45
Upside / Downside-44.88%-26.63%-1.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59,322.0060,186.6761,063.9561,954.0162,857.0563,773.2565,686.44
Payout Ratio47.76%56.21%64.66%73.11%81.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,334.0033,831.2039,482.6345,291.6251,261.5657,395.9260,759.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.46%1.46%2.46%
Year 1 PV (M)31,502.1231,815.7132,129.30
Year 2 PV (M)34,233.4834,918.4235,610.15
Year 3 PV (M)36,566.6637,669.5738,794.43
Year 4 PV (M)38,537.3440,094.8841,699.16
Year 5 PV (M)40,178.4742,218.4644,340.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,275,410.661,340,167.171,407,527.69
Equity Value (M)1,456,428.731,526,884.211,600,101.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,556.741,556.741,556.74
Fair Value$935.56$980.82$1,027.86
Upside / Downside-1.03%3.76%8.73%

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