Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Han's CNC Technology Co., Ltd. (301200.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.87 - $267.04$250.16
Multi-Stage$134.37 - $148.04$141.07
Blended Fair Value$195.62
Current Price$97.56
Upside100.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-52.37%0.00%0.012.840.420.370.000.360.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.69%576.84%12.16%0.00%-100.00%14,335.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%8.19%0.96%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)589.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)416.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.9773.7344.24
Cash Retained (M)416.24416.24416.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.97-73.73-44.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.27342.51372.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.43421.43421.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate1.67%1.67%1.67%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$209.87$250.16$267.04
Upside / Downside115.11%156.42%173.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)589.86602.43615.28628.39641.79655.47675.13
Payout Ratio29.43%41.55%53.66%65.77%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.62250.29330.16413.32499.87589.92624.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.67%1.67%1.67%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)243.77246.18248.59
Year 2 PV (M)313.17319.39325.68
Year 3 PV (M)381.83393.27404.93
Year 4 PV (M)449.75467.80486.39
Year 5 PV (M)516.93543.00570.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,723.1857,482.7560,352.55
Equity Value (M)56,628.6259,452.3962,388.25
Shares Outstanding (M)421.43421.43421.43
Fair Value$134.37$141.07$148.04
Upside / Downside37.73%44.60%51.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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