Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co., Ltd. (301196.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.98 - $84.91$56.78
Multi-Stage$28.56 - $31.22$29.87
Blended Fair Value$43.33
Current Price$95.78
Upside-54.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS180.39%0.00%1.420.700.600.000.000.010.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth--102.74%16.67%141,677.90%-84.87%-65.85%-62.26%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.69%2.33%1.71%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0033.1219.87
Cash Retained (M)259.41259.41259.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.00-33.12-19.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.42226.29239.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.54124.54124.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.821.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.821.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.701.861.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.98$56.78$84.91
Upside / Downside-58.26%-40.71%-11.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.99282.21300.55320.09340.90363.06373.95
Payout Ratio2.10%19.68%37.26%54.84%72.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5755.55111.99175.54246.88326.75345.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.0350.5050.97
Year 2 PV (M)90.8492.5794.32
Year 3 PV (M)128.24131.92135.67
Year 4 PV (M)162.43168.67175.10
Year 5 PV (M)193.61202.96212.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,931.413,073.003,220.01
Equity Value (M)3,556.553,719.623,888.73
Shares Outstanding (M)124.54124.54124.54
Fair Value$28.56$29.87$31.22
Upside / Downside-70.18%-68.82%-67.40%

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