Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HIT Welding Industry Co.,Ltd (301137.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.84 - $2.62$2.23
Multi-Stage$2.93 - $3.21$3.07
Blended Fair Value$2.65
Current Price$38.42
Upside-93.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-4.37%0.00%0.160.090.140.280.280.200.110.080.000.00
YoY Growth--83.39%-38.56%-47.50%-1.16%36.79%78.39%47.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.58%0.94%1.25%1.18%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.926.203.72
Cash Retained (M)28.1728.1728.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.92-6.20-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.2521.9724.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)182.18182.18182.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.84$2.23$2.62
Upside / Downside-95.21%-94.21%-93.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6249.1348.6348.1547.6747.1948.61
Payout Ratio43.22%52.58%61.93%71.29%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.4525.8330.1234.3238.4442.4744.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.3323.5723.80
Year 2 PV (M)24.5725.0725.58
Year 3 PV (M)25.2926.0726.87
Year 4 PV (M)25.5826.6427.73
Year 5 PV (M)25.5226.8528.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)409.32430.64452.83
Equity Value (M)533.62558.84585.06
Shares Outstanding (M)182.18182.18182.18
Fair Value$2.93$3.07$3.21
Upside / Downside-92.38%-92.02%-91.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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