Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang JW Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd (300984.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.10 - $6.25$5.10
Multi-Stage$5.56 - $6.09$5.82
Blended Fair Value$5.46
Current Price$70.20
Upside-92.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.48%0.00%0.180.190.460.290.230.130.070.070.000.00
YoY Growth---6.64%-59.26%61.34%24.05%71.55%102.14%-10.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%1.16%2.85%1.21%0.91%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.425.263.16
Cash Retained (M)24.0324.0324.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.42-5.26-3.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6018.7620.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6593.6593.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$4.10$5.10$6.25
Upside / Downside-94.16%-92.73%-91.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.1242.8143.5244.2344.9645.7047.07
Payout Ratio42.96%52.37%61.77%71.18%80.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.0922.4226.8831.4936.2441.1343.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)20.2820.4820.68
Year 2 PV (M)21.9922.4322.87
Year 3 PV (M)23.2923.9924.71
Year 4 PV (M)24.2425.2226.23
Year 5 PV (M)24.8926.1527.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)406.41427.01448.43
Equity Value (M)521.10545.27570.37
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6593.6593.65
Fair Value$5.56$5.82$6.09
Upside / Downside-92.07%-91.71%-91.32%

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