Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co.,Ltd (300976.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$196.95 - $508.92$476.93
Multi-Stage$72.83 - $79.71$76.21
Blended Fair Value$276.57
Current Price$72.80
Upside279.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS130.01%0.00%0.200.660.990.460.000.000.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth---70.17%-33.14%116.00%0.00%-100.00%-58.22%-49.31%3,194.83%-46.74%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%2.30%2.66%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)186.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.1236.3321.80
Cash Retained (M)186.06186.06186.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.12-36.33-21.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.94149.73164.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.56113.56113.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.321.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.321.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$196.95$476.93$508.92
Upside / Downside170.54%555.13%599.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.61309.50329.61351.04373.86398.16410.10
Payout Ratio35.98%46.78%57.59%68.39%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.55144.79189.81240.08296.08358.34379.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)134.55135.83137.10
Year 2 PV (M)163.92167.05170.20
Year 3 PV (M)192.68198.21203.84
Year 4 PV (M)220.82229.31238.05
Year 5 PV (M)248.37260.36272.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,310.367,663.458,030.06
Equity Value (M)8,270.708,654.219,052.07
Shares Outstanding (M)113.56113.56113.56
Fair Value$72.83$76.21$79.71
Upside / Downside0.04%4.68%9.49%

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