Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Yitong New Material Co., Ltd. (300930.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.55 - $8.66$6.98
Multi-Stage$7.89 - $8.66$8.27
Blended Fair Value$7.62
Current Price$30.87
Upside-75.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS59.39%0.00%0.130.100.100.100.000.010.410.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.99%0.00%-0.34%2,396.93%-67.96%-96.97%15,049.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.55%0.38%0.37%0.02%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.297.064.23
Cash Retained (M)41.4141.4141.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.29-7.06-4.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.1134.3537.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.9999.9999.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.61%8.61%8.61%
Growth Rate0.43%1.43%2.43%
Fair Value$5.55$6.98$8.66
Upside / Downside-82.03%-77.38%-71.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.4757.2758.0958.9259.7760.6262.44
Payout Ratio26.67%39.33%52.00%64.67%77.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0622.5330.2138.1046.2254.5657.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.61%8.61%8.61%
Growth Rate0.43%1.43%2.43%
Year 1 PV (M)20.5420.7420.95
Year 2 PV (M)25.1125.6126.12
Year 3 PV (M)28.8729.7430.63
Year 4 PV (M)31.9333.2234.55
Year 5 PV (M)34.3636.1037.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)648.32681.24715.49
Equity Value (M)789.11826.65865.65
Shares Outstanding (M)99.9999.9999.99
Fair Value$7.89$8.27$8.66
Upside / Downside-74.43%-73.22%-71.95%

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