Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co.,Ltd. (300879.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.55 - $26.06$16.76
Multi-Stage$14.74 - $16.18$15.45
Blended Fair Value$16.10
Current Price$35.25
Upside-54.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.82%0.00%0.170.190.240.200.100.070.050.250.200.00
YoY Growth---8.21%-22.72%24.03%99.18%40.93%46.63%-80.85%23.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.50%1.33%1.19%0.37%0.10%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7414.848.90
Cash Retained (M)84.9384.9384.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.74-14.84-8.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.1970.0976.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Fair Value$11.55$16.76$26.06
Upside / Downside-67.22%-52.45%-26.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.70122.67126.77131.01135.38139.91144.10
Payout Ratio28.45%40.76%53.07%65.38%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7750.0067.2885.65105.18125.92133.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Year 1 PV (M)46.4846.9447.39
Year 2 PV (M)58.1459.2860.44
Year 3 PV (M)68.8170.8572.92
Year 4 PV (M)78.5581.6684.87
Year 5 PV (M)87.4191.7796.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,620.712,751.282,886.99
Equity Value (M)2,960.113,101.783,248.91
Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
Fair Value$14.74$15.45$16.18
Upside / Downside-58.17%-56.17%-54.09%

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