Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tansun Technology Co., Ltd. (300872.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.74 - $1.05$0.90
Multi-Stage$1.19 - $1.30$1.25
Blended Fair Value$1.07
Current Price$22.76
Upside-95.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.000.050.100.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.00%0.33%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.006.253.75
Cash Retained (M)21.4821.4821.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.00-6.25-3.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.4815.2317.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)448.73448.73448.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.74$0.90$1.05
Upside / Downside-96.74%-96.06%-95.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.0049.5049.0148.5248.0347.5548.98
Payout Ratio57.03%63.63%70.22%76.81%83.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.5231.5034.4137.2740.0642.8045.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.4028.6928.98
Year 2 PV (M)27.9828.5629.14
Year 3 PV (M)27.3328.1729.04
Year 4 PV (M)26.4927.5928.72
Year 5 PV (M)25.5226.8528.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)398.87419.64441.27
Equity Value (M)534.59559.50585.37
Shares Outstanding (M)448.73448.73448.73
Fair Value$1.19$1.25$1.30
Upside / Downside-94.77%-94.52%-94.27%

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