Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Scitop Bio-tech Co., Ltd. (300858.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.50 - $3.54$3.01
Multi-Stage$3.61 - $3.97$3.79
Blended Fair Value$3.40
Current Price$17.44
Upside-80.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS156.46%0.00%0.150.200.290.320.000.000.270.060.130.01
YoY Growth---25.00%-29.23%-9.76%0.00%-100.00%-99.50%374.47%-54.54%1,950.56%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.12%1.20%1.68%0.00%0.01%2.17%0.46%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.8812.427.45
Cash Retained (M)99.3799.3799.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.88-12.42-7.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.4986.9491.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.81259.81259.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.50$3.01$3.54
Upside / Downside-85.66%-82.72%-79.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99.4098.4097.4296.4495.4894.5397.36
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0317.7335.0952.0968.7585.0790.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.9616.1216.29
Year 2 PV (M)28.4229.0029.59
Year 3 PV (M)37.9739.1440.34
Year 4 PV (M)45.1046.9748.89
Year 5 PV (M)50.2252.8455.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)760.11799.69840.90
Equity Value (M)937.78983.761,031.57
Shares Outstanding (M)259.81259.81259.81
Fair Value$3.61$3.79$3.97
Upside / Downside-79.30%-78.29%-77.23%

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