Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.12 - $154.64$144.92
Multi-Stage$24.66 - $26.97$25.79
Blended Fair Value$85.36
Current Price$21.71
Upside293.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.80%24.31%0.370.550.100.140.500.590.000.040.120.10
YoY Growth---32.25%443.38%-25.85%-72.64%-15.53%12,012.17%-88.87%-63.58%25.86%126.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.53%0.46%0.71%2.41%2.03%0.01%0.19%0.00%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)647.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)451.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.4680.9148.55
Cash Retained (M)195.78195.78195.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.46-80.91-48.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.33114.87147.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)832.42832.42832.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.140.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.140.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.12$144.92$154.64
Upside / Downside273.66%567.54%612.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)647.28689.35734.16781.88832.70886.83913.43
Payout Ratio69.75%73.80%77.85%81.90%85.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)451.49508.76571.56640.37715.71798.15844.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)474.07478.56483.06
Year 2 PV (M)496.28505.73515.27
Year 3 PV (M)518.12532.99548.15
Year 4 PV (M)539.60560.35581.69
Year 5 PV (M)560.72587.80615.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,938.4018,804.8319,704.42
Equity Value (M)20,527.1821,470.2622,448.51
Shares Outstanding (M)832.42832.42832.42
Fair Value$24.66$25.79$26.97
Upside / Downside13.59%18.81%24.22%

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