Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Xinyu Guoke Technology Co., Ltd (300722.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.09 - $8.55$5.78
Multi-Stage$3.26 - $3.55$3.40
Blended Fair Value$4.59
Current Price$31.46
Upside-85.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.68%42.63%0.130.100.110.120.100.100.090.080.030.07
YoY Growth--28.00%-2.94%-7.27%14.40%0.00%16.67%11.21%198.44%-62.88%1,739.34%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.54%0.51%0.61%0.40%1.38%0.78%0.70%0.48%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.327.704.62
Cash Retained (M)11.8011.8011.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.32-7.70-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.524.107.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.14277.14277.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.21
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.09$5.78$8.55
Upside / Downside-87.00%-81.64%-72.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.6265.6269.8974.4379.2784.4286.95
Payout Ratio80.85%82.68%84.51%86.34%88.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.8254.2659.0664.2669.8975.9880.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.8249.2849.75
Year 2 PV (M)47.8248.7349.65
Year 3 PV (M)46.8248.1749.54
Year 4 PV (M)45.8247.5949.40
Year 5 PV (M)44.8346.9949.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)669.61701.95735.53
Equity Value (M)903.72942.71983.10
Shares Outstanding (M)277.14277.14277.14
Fair Value$3.26$3.40$3.55
Upside / Downside-89.63%-89.19%-88.72%

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