Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corporation (300696.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.54 - $5.49$3.63
Multi-Stage$1.80 - $1.97$1.88
Blended Fair Value$2.76
Current Price$25.82
Upside-89.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.57%11.44%0.100.190.160.070.080.070.070.050.050.03
YoY Growth---49.40%19.69%129.06%-10.02%10.13%5.37%32.13%3.65%50.00%-0.74%
Dividend Yield--0.62%1.30%0.61%0.17%0.28%0.43%0.62%0.27%0.61%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.095.063.03
Cash Retained (M)40.2640.2640.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.09-5.06-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.1735.2137.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.29305.29305.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.54$3.63$5.49
Upside / Downside-90.15%-85.93%-78.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4543.0845.8848.8652.0455.4257.08
Payout Ratio0.46%18.37%36.28%54.18%72.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.197.9116.6426.4737.5149.8852.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.137.207.27
Year 2 PV (M)13.5213.7814.04
Year 3 PV (M)19.3919.9520.51
Year 4 PV (M)24.7725.7226.70
Year 5 PV (M)29.6831.1132.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)455.49477.49500.34
Equity Value (M)549.98575.25601.46
Shares Outstanding (M)305.29305.29305.29
Fair Value$1.80$1.88$1.97
Upside / Downside-93.02%-92.70%-92.37%

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