Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jouder Precision Industry (Kunshan) Co., Ltd. (300549.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.41 - $0.56$0.49
Multi-Stage$0.93 - $1.02$0.97
Blended Fair Value$0.73
Current Price$19.33
Upside-96.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.10%-5.21%0.110.130.210.110.100.230.270.120.260.15
YoY Growth---17.95%-36.26%89.16%7.58%-56.05%-12.43%122.77%-53.76%71.96%-19.32%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.76%1.49%0.75%0.59%2.05%1.80%0.58%0.81%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.941.210.73
Cash Retained (M)0.360.360.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.94-1.21-0.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.58-0.86-0.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.45133.45133.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-5.42%-4.42%-3.42%
Fair Value$0.41$0.49$0.56
Upside / Downside-97.89%-97.48%-97.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.719.288.878.488.107.747.98
Payout Ratio96.31%95.05%93.79%92.52%91.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.358.828.327.847.396.977.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-5.42%-4.42%-3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)8.088.168.25
Year 2 PV (M)6.977.127.27
Year 3 PV (M)6.026.216.41
Year 4 PV (M)5.205.425.65
Year 5 PV (M)4.484.724.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)93.3298.36103.61
Equity Value (M)124.07130.00136.17
Shares Outstanding (M)133.45133.45133.45
Fair Value$0.93$0.97$1.02
Upside / Downside-95.19%-94.96%-94.72%

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