Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd. (300496.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.78 - $42.09$28.12
Multi-Stage$14.19 - $15.51$14.84
Blended Fair Value$21.48
Current Price$77.68
Upside-72.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.12%20.65%0.370.340.310.230.150.120.180.100.110.09
YoY Growth--9.68%7.91%38.62%52.54%27.48%-36.09%91.41%-14.58%29.65%51.24%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.64%0.29%0.23%0.12%0.22%0.52%0.26%0.33%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)484.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)457.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.9160.5736.34
Cash Retained (M)457.60457.60457.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.91-60.57-36.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)360.69397.03421.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)461.32461.32461.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.78$28.12$42.09
Upside / Downside-74.53%-63.80%-45.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)484.53516.03549.57585.29623.33663.85683.77
Payout Ratio5.56%22.45%39.33%56.22%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.93115.83216.17329.07455.73597.47632.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.33105.32106.31
Year 2 PV (M)175.38178.72182.09
Year 3 PV (M)240.46247.36254.40
Year 4 PV (M)299.95311.48323.35
Year 5 PV (M)354.19371.30389.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,370.915,630.335,899.67
Equity Value (M)6,545.216,844.507,154.87
Shares Outstanding (M)461.32461.32461.32
Fair Value$14.19$14.84$15.51
Upside / Downside-81.74%-80.90%-80.03%

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