Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lens Technology Co., Ltd. (300433.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.75 - $162.69$152.46
Multi-Stage$23.05 - $25.21$24.11
Blended Fair Value$88.29
Current Price$33.48
Upside163.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.32%34.18%0.380.280.210.450.310.110.190.090.160.03
YoY Growth--32.41%34.99%-52.90%41.70%180.45%-41.14%109.02%-43.74%498.60%36.44%
Dividend Yield--1.48%2.00%1.56%3.82%1.20%0.77%2.13%0.53%1.04%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,095.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,218.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,877.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)819.18511.99307.19
Cash Retained (M)1,877.561,877.561,877.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-819.18-511.99-307.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,058.381,365.571,570.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.75$152.46$162.69
Upside / Downside75.49%355.38%385.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,095.914,362.144,645.684,947.655,269.255,611.755,780.10
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,218.352,675.223,182.113,743.594,364.635,050.585,346.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,484.272,507.822,531.37
Year 2 PV (M)2,744.072,796.332,849.09
Year 3 PV (M)2,997.843,083.903,171.58
Year 4 PV (M)3,245.683,370.503,498.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,487.713,656.163,831.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,463.43105,315.85110,353.98
Equity Value (M)115,422.99120,730.56126,235.99
Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
Fair Value$23.05$24.11$25.21
Upside / Downside-31.15%-27.98%-24.70%

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