Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Enlight Media Co., Ltd. (300251.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.03 - $10.92$8.83
Multi-Stage$14.52 - $15.98$15.24
Blended Fair Value$12.03
Current Price$19.37
Upside-37.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.41%14.98%0.070.050.200.010.060.070.230.050.050.06
YoY Growth--38.49%-74.82%1,898.40%-83.76%-9.80%-70.32%343.03%2.30%-12.18%234.80%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.47%2.25%0.12%0.52%0.77%2.61%0.40%0.54%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,166.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)584.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,582.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)433.35270.85162.51
Cash Retained (M)1,582.021,582.021,582.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-433.35-270.85-162.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,148.671,311.181,419.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,924.882,924.882,924.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-1.59%-0.59%0.41%
Fair Value$7.03$8.83$10.92
Upside / Downside-63.72%-54.42%-43.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,166.772,154.052,141.402,128.832,116.332,103.902,167.02
Payout Ratio26.99%39.59%52.19%64.79%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)584.75852.781,117.641,379.371,637.981,893.512,004.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-1.59%-0.59%0.41%
Year 1 PV (M)791.10799.14807.18
Year 2 PV (M)961.82981.461,001.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,101.201,135.111,169.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,213.081,263.141,314.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,300.891,368.341,438.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,096.8839,020.3341,022.76
Equity Value (M)42,464.9744,567.5346,754.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,924.882,924.882,924.88
Fair Value$14.52$15.24$15.98
Upside / Downside-25.05%-21.34%-17.48%

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