Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tonymoly Co., Ltd (214420.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,974.25 - $7,278.42$6,085.36
Multi-Stage$8,533.78 - $9,387.42$8,952.26
Blended Fair Value$7,518.81
Current Price$11,480.00
Upside-34.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.0049.5512.20170.02147.8683.82
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%306.07%-92.82%14.99%76.40%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.64%0.10%1.09%0.79%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,633.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,868.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,765.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,126.781,954.241,172.54
Cash Retained (M)12,765.5812,765.5812,765.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,126.78-1,954.24-1,172.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,638.8010,811.3411,593.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.8623.8623.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share403.97453.11485.87
LTM Dividend per Share120.21120.21120.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share403.97453.11485.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend524.18573.33606.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4,974.25$6,085.36$7,278.42
Upside / Downside-56.67%-46.99%-36.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,633.9015,477.5615,322.7815,169.5515,017.8614,867.6815,313.71
Payout Ratio18.35%32.68%47.01%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,868.325,057.677,202.949,304.8111,363.9213,380.9114,165.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,621.724,668.884,716.04
Year 2 PV (M)6,014.746,138.126,262.75
Year 3 PV (M)7,100.167,319.737,543.79
Year 4 PV (M)7,923.958,252.368,590.88
Year 5 PV (M)8,526.158,970.139,432.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,430.74178,253.39187,439.81
Equity Value (M)203,617.46213,602.61223,985.67
Shares Outstanding (M)23.8623.8623.86
Fair Value$8,533.78$8,952.26$9,387.42
Upside / Downside-25.66%-22.02%-18.23%

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