Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AIA Group Limited (1299.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.14 - $20.60$15.83
Multi-Stage$17.70 - $19.41$18.54
Blended Fair Value$17.18
Current Price$8.97
Upside91.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%12.79%0.210.210.210.200.180.180.130.130.100.08
YoY Growth--0.91%1.45%4.78%8.64%1.01%35.13%5.52%22.36%36.54%18.86%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.49%1.86%1.95%1.48%1.71%1.60%1.55%1.68%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,884.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,717.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,167.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,176.801,360.50816.30
Cash Retained (M)6,167.006,167.006,167.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,176.80-1,360.50-816.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,990.204,806.505,350.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,057.7511,057.7511,057.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$12.14$15.83$20.60
Upside / Downside35.35%76.42%129.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,884.0011,108.5711,337.7811,571.7111,810.4812,054.1712,415.79
Payout Ratio43.34%52.67%62.00%71.34%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,717.005,851.007,029.808,254.749,527.2510,848.7511,484.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)5,383.565,436.835,490.10
Year 2 PV (M)5,951.436,069.796,189.31
Year 3 PV (M)6,430.156,622.926,819.50
Year 4 PV (M)6,828.487,102.787,385.27
Year 5 PV (M)7,154.437,515.477,890.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)164,006.76172,282.99180,890.01
Equity Value (M)195,754.81205,030.77214,665.12
Shares Outstanding (M)11,057.7511,057.7511,057.75
Fair Value$17.70$18.54$19.41
Upside / Downside97.36%106.71%116.42%

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