Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yashili International Holdings Ltd (1230.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.33 - $0.50$0.41
Multi-Stage$0.63 - $0.69$0.66
Blended Fair Value$0.54
Current Price$1.00
Upside-46.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.000.000.010.020.030.30
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-52.38%-43.27%-90.67%603.54%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%1.60%0.00%0.00%0.56%0.97%1.58%8.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.9424.3414.60
Cash Retained (M)135.28135.28135.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.94-24.34-14.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.34110.95120.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,745.564,745.564,745.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.33$0.41$0.50
Upside / Downside-66.47%-58.65%-50.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.69192.74190.81188.90187.02185.14190.70
Payout Ratio30.51%42.41%54.31%66.21%78.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.4181.74103.63125.06146.06166.63176.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)75.1975.9676.73
Year 2 PV (M)87.6989.4891.30
Year 3 PV (M)97.35100.36103.43
Year 4 PV (M)104.58108.92113.38
Year 5 PV (M)109.75115.46121.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,518.862,650.032,786.60
Equity Value (M)2,993.423,140.203,292.85
Shares Outstanding (M)4,745.564,745.564,745.56
Fair Value$0.63$0.66$0.69
Upside / Downside-36.78%-33.68%-30.46%

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