Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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VBG Group AB (publ) (0GXK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$945.63 - $3,368.39$3,084.51
Multi-Stage$432.16 - $472.67$452.05
Blended Fair Value$1,768.28
Current Price$314.40
Upside462.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.24%17.67%7.005.505.004.500.004.503.251.751.631.50
YoY Growth--27.25%10.00%11.11%0.00%-100.00%38.46%85.71%7.69%8.33%9.09%
Dividend Yield--2.50%1.77%2.90%3.22%0.00%3.91%2.32%1.31%1.44%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)241.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.6852.9331.76
Cash Retained (M)241.80241.80241.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.68-52.93-31.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.12188.88210.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.0025.0025.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.297.568.40
LTM Dividend per Share7.267.267.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.297.568.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.5514.8215.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$945.63$3,084.51$3,368.39
Upside / Downside200.77%881.08%971.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.40450.92480.23511.45544.69580.09597.50
Payout Ratio42.89%52.31%61.73%71.16%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.60235.89296.47363.93438.90522.09552.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.36220.43222.50
Year 2 PV (M)254.05258.89263.77
Year 3 PV (M)288.69296.97305.42
Year 4 PV (M)322.29334.69347.44
Year 5 PV (M)354.89372.04389.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,365.009,817.3310,286.97
Equity Value (M)10,803.2911,300.3511,815.94
Shares Outstanding (M)25.0025.0025.00
Fair Value$432.16$452.05$472.67
Upside / Downside37.46%43.78%50.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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