Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. (002971.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.82 - $67.73$33.80
Multi-Stage$10.42 - $11.39$10.90
Blended Fair Value$22.35
Current Price$35.43
Upside-36.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.05%0.00%0.230.120.170.230.080.080.160.080.060.07
YoY Growth--98.57%-32.53%-26.13%191.80%-2.29%-49.43%110.86%24.08%-9.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.55%0.96%1.43%0.58%0.51%1.36%0.65%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.429.015.41
Cash Retained (M)2.602.602.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.42-9.01-5.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.82-6.41-2.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.51209.51209.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$14.82$33.80$67.73
Upside / Downside-58.17%-4.61%91.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.0875.9880.1084.4389.0193.8396.64
Payout Ratio96.40%95.12%93.84%92.56%91.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.4872.2775.1678.1581.2584.4589.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)67.3167.9568.60
Year 2 PV (M)65.1966.4567.71
Year 3 PV (M)63.1364.9666.83
Year 4 PV (M)61.1263.5065.94
Year 5 PV (M)59.1762.0665.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,867.081,958.222,052.87
Equity Value (M)2,183.012,283.132,387.02
Shares Outstanding (M)209.51209.51209.51
Fair Value$10.42$10.90$11.39
Upside / Downside-70.59%-69.24%-67.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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